Ever Changing Moods
by Cat Holloway /
Early voting for Australia's next Government and Prime Minister has begun. Call me optimistic, but with climate change and energy policy fuelling almost every political argument, I'm not alone in bracing for the winds of change.
That's not to say new leadership is expected to blow in - the latest polling predicts an Australian Labor Party (ALP) win. But this election is likely to be buffeted by unpredictable gusts from youth, women and independent-minded voters from both extremes keen to challenge the long-established two-party dominance.
Pollsters found recently that only about half of Australians voters know who they would vote for and would not change their minds. Of the rest, 34% said they might still change, while 13% had not decided who to vote for.
All Australian eyes will be on our "marginal" Gilmore electorate's eight candidates, especially the crucial spread of voter preferences that will determine who takes a seat in the House of Representatives and the Senate.
Gilmore voters must be on their best behaviour to play their pivotal role in the nation's government structure, as they did in 2022 to barely return the Labor's Fiona Phillips, who scraped in ahead of Liberal's Andrew Constance by a mere 373 votes.
Constance asked for a recount then, but the electoral commission refused. Carmel McCallum's Greens preferences pushed Phillips over the finish line, ironically giving the ALP a crucial two-seat majority of 77 in the House of Representatives, enabling it to form government without doing any deals with Greens, Independents or other cross-benchers.
Fast forward to this 2025 rematch and preferences are the hot topic again. So tight is the race that even a small percentage of wasted preferences in informal votes could decide the winner.
Which is why the "How to Vote" handouts at polling stations are so important. If you are like me - curious but hate being publicly bombarded at the doorway by papers and opinions - check out each candidate's official advice, privately and carefully, in this gallery. (Click images to enlarge.)
WTF about preferences?
What's the fuss about preferences? They are compulsory in our Federal elections.
The preference structure in Australian elections ensures that Australians cannot “waste” their vote - no matter how hard the major parties might try to convince you otherwise.
At the last election, almost a third of votes were for independents and other parties. The 68.5% primary votes share for Labor and the Coalition is lower than ever, having continued to fall steadily since the two parties claimed 98% of votes in 1951.
Depending on who you vote for and in what order, your preferences could be counted and distributed several times. Australian voters number every candidate according to their preference and if your chosen candidate gets knocked out of the race, your next preferred candidate gets your vote and that counting process repeats until your vote lands on one of the final two.
If you mess up your numbering, protest with a dick doodle or leave any boxes empty out of indecision or stubbornness, your ballot paper is dumped and you are the loser.
But to err is human. Plus, it takes a lot of time and healthy skepticism to research each candidate's policy positions and see through the generously-funded campaign crap - yes, astonishingly, it IS actually LEGAL to lie in political advertising.
Pride & Preferences
I'll say this loudly: There Are No Preference Deals. Truly. Not anymore.
Before 2016, voters could mark only one number next to a party on the Senate ballot paper and thus allow the party to decide where votes would go, according to complicated entrenched preference "deals" with other parties.
But Parliamentary reforms (led by The Greens) blocked this shortcut and gave each individual voter absolute power to preference as they see fit.
But with that freedom comes the responsibility to accurately number every box on the House of Representatives ballot paper, and at least six boxes (above the line) on the Senate ballot paper.
The only backroom arrangements that could happen (but don't always) are quid-pro-quo agreements on the suggestion/instruction cards printed to help voters.
Preferences are, however, a big deal to election outcomes.
In just one example, according to research from Australia Institute's Skye Predavec, Groom, QLD, independent Suzie Holt went from fourth place with just 8% of the vote to finish second with 43% on preferences.
Holt was surprisingly favoured above the Liberal National candidate by voters across the political spectrum: Greens, One Nation and Labor voters.
Gilmore's Girls
Although Greens' Debbie Killian, Community Independent, Kate Dezarnaulds, and Labor incumbent, Fiona Phillips all avoided officially cooperating throughout the Gilmore campaign, it's abundantly clear that these three women have significant progressive sentiments in common.
Some Labor supporters fear Dezarnaulds' straddling a politically centrist crevasse will only weaken Labor and strengthen Liberal. But that's assuming Dezarnaulds doesn't lure enough disgruntled voters from both sides of the divide to actually win the seat herself.
Meanwhile the Greens are relaxed about the preference system doing its job to provide left-leaning choice for a variety of values with one shared goal: to shut out Andrew Constance - and Peter Dutton's increasingly MAGA-minded Liberal Party.
To that aim, it makes exactly zero difference if Green 1 voters then preference Kate Dezarnaulds before Fiona Phillips or vice versa. Provided both candidates are numbered ahead of Andrew Constance, the progressive voice will be loud and Phillips remains the likely victor.
Greens' Debbie Killian said she believes Gilmore's contest between Labor and the Liberals will be tight, with preferences deciding the outcome.
"One of our main goals in deciding preferences was to ensure that Andrew Constance, who has said during the campaign that he wants Australia to walk away from the Paris Agreement, will not represent the people of Gilmore." Killian said
Independent Kate Dezarnaulds held firm during the campaign to her decision NOT to promote preferences, instead putting extra energy into educating and encouraging her supporters about their right to choose for themselves.
However, this morning, Dezarnaulds unveiled a How to Vote card that on one side did not recommend a specific preference allocation but included a section on the other side showing "How Kate is Voting" with Greens favoured 2nd and Labor 3rd. Liberal takes 4th position above the four small parties whose local representatives have so far been nearly invisible during the Gilmore campaign.
Local Labor stalwart and ALP Life Member, Michelle Miran, considers Dezarnauld's "values based" strategy extremely risky with Gilmore's seat "on a knife edge" because voters "even with goodwill and best intentions get confused about preferential voting".
"Not making preferences clear is inadvertently advising voters not to allocate preferences at all, making your precious ballot informal," Miran said
Drawing from previous experience, Miran said ambiguity from independents could spell disaster for the progressive side of the political spectrum.
"I cannot begin to describe my fear of a Dutton government and what it would mean to Australia.
"My party is by no means perfect, but it is the better alternative and, with the constructive input of the independents, it has been a better government.
"Other ultra conservative candidates on the ballot will preference the Liberals - that makes it even more dangerous."
Stuck in the Middle
That leaves Gilmore essentially split in half with three progressive candidates rallying around Labor: Greens, Independent and Legalise Cannabis. Countering that, Liberals will be buoyed to some degree by three largely unknown far-right candidates from One Nation, Trumpet of Patriots and Family First.
Conservative cards generally sell the same line: put Greens last. For much of the current generation of right wing Australia, policy details play second fiddle to their real obsession, hating Greens.
One Nation's candidate in Gilmore is still not pictured or listed on the One Nation website. And Trumpet of Patriots How to Vote Cards don't appear to subscribe to any particular logic. In Peter Dutton's marginal seat of Dickson, the Trumpet of Patriots (ToP) candidate preferenced Dutton last.
Here in Gilmore, ToP's Melissa Wise has Fiona Phillips as the Labor MP, last, Greens up at sixth place and Independent Kate Dezarnaulds preferenced second.
Confusion/ignorance could be the far right's own downfall with Facebook threads still hijacked by devotees spruiking bad voting advice like:
"Take your own biro or sharpie. Do not use pencil. Only vote for the ones you want. Do not vote or mark any ALP, teal or Green. Preferential voting is a scam and unconstitutional. They cannot make you vote for someone you do not want."
It's a bizarre reality that the Liberals and their Trumpesque friends are spending millions to sink a small party whose candidates run on budgets far smaller than the amount Peter Dutton will need to give his struggling son, Harry, to help with a deposit for a first home.
Nevertheless, the Liberal money fountain flows freely from the resource sector to the right.
According to the Australian Financial Review (AFR), Advance received in 2023-24 donation of $500,000 from the Cormack Foundation, a "nominated entity" for the Victorian Liberal Party, meaning it's purpose is to provide “principal benefit” for Liberal Party members.
AFR in February reported that the large donation to Advance was the subject of a complaint to the Victorian Electoral Commission over concerns it breached the “principal benefit” requirement. The Liberal Party said it did know about the donation being made to Advance.
According to Australian Electoral Commission disclosures, other wealthy entrepreneurs who fund Advance include former coal power station owner Trevor St Baker, tech investor Steve Baxter, Kennards Self Storage’s Sam Kennard, Bakers Delight founder Roger Gillespie and Melbourne Storm director and transport businessman Brett Ralph.
Hazard reduction in families and forests
Moruya businessman and Gilmore's Family First candidate, Graham Brown, said he has not received any campaign funding from Advance which he agreed is funding the Liberal Party.
Brown spoke openly to Spark about his passion for representing constituents suffering financial strain from high power bills and grocery costs or alcohol abuse and gambling.
"I say yes to taxing the resource industry more and taxing people struggling less," Brown said.
"We are living in almost a third world country because of the way we throw money away."
"It's ludicrous that all our tax money is going to windmills and solar panels - spending billions on windmills and renewables is extortion - it's ridiculous and it's running people into poverty."
Brown, with his Pastor wife, Julie, describes his church as "born again for Jesus Christ". But he disdains public money going to what he calls "climate religion".
"We don't believe in climate change - it's the biggest con job to ever hit the world."
Brown said the scientific opinion on bushfires and impending drought was "absolute rubbish thrown down our throats" and that he thinks rising suicide rates could be attributed to fear-mongering from the environmental lobby.
"Australia has more trees than you can poke a stick at," Brown said.
"Greens are hypocrites - they are nowhere to be seen where we are wiping out hundreds of acres of koala habitat for power lines.
"They want windmills all the way down the coast but I'm for nuclear - you can build one in my backyard if you like."
While being a vocal climate change denier is central to Brown's platform, his personal compassion for the poor and working class in his community puts him closer to Green values than he might realise. He is also supportive of medicinal marijuana as promoted by the Legalise Cannabis Party.
But other Family First values including opposing abortion and sex changes (especially for under 18s) as well as supporting Israel's war in Palestine explain why Greens are last on Brown's How to Vote Card.
"We are about fighting for a parent's right to choose how to raise their children - otherwise we are just living in communism."
In 1984, The Style Council released Paul Weller's brilliant song "My Ever Changing Moods" and Australia went to an early election. I was just a few months shy of being eligible to vote so I listened to that song on repeat instead. It's lyrics perfectly encapsulate the way personal feelings spill into political values.
For anyone still sitting on the fence over how to vote in this Federal election, you might like to listen - while practicing numbering your ballot paper.
Evil turns to statues, and masses form a line
But I know which way I'd run to if the choice was mine
The past is our knowledge, the present our mistake
And the future we always leave too late
I wish we'd come to our senses and see there is no truth
In those who promote the confusion for this ever changing mood
