Power prices, payback and preferences
Australia's 2025 Federal Election count officially closed with the final postal votes registered last Friday. Fine details of preference breakdowns and Senate outcomes will dribble out in coming days, possibly weeks. But Gilmore's House of Representatives numbers are in. Do they match the spin?
by Cat Holloway /
Fiona Phillips' resounding third-time victory was declared almost immediately on the evening of the May 3rd election, with 93 other Labor candidates taking seats in the historic Labor-dominated 48th Parliament of Australia.
National results are updated on the Australian Electoral Commission website.
Australian Electoral Commission
In Gilmore, alongside Labor's rosy jubilation and Liberals' blue misery, the mixed salad of Greens, Independent and four "minor" candidates was mainly overlooked amid grand declarations of "a triumphant landslide" for Labor versus a "catastrophic wipeout" for the Liberals.
But a closer look at Gilmore's numbers on the AEC Tally Room gives a clearer picture of Gilmore's diverse political landscape and the crucial impact - again - of voter preferences.
After voting preferences were distributed, Fiona Phillips secured a third-term winning margin of 11,213 votes (a 55.06% total vote) that was clear validation of her previous six years as Gilmore's Federal Member.
This year's swing of +4.89% must have been particularly gratifying following the 2022 result that saw Phillips sneak in by just 373 votes - again ahead of the Liberal's Andrew Constance.
The downside of this is that Gilmore is no longer marginal, so Phillips will have to work even harder to attract Federal money for her constituents' needs.
Primary votes, however, were not as dramatic, with Phillips getting just 38.11% of votes compared to Andrew Constance's 34.45% - a significantly larger primary vote in Gilmore than the Liberals averaged nationally.
That means 27.44% of Gilmore voters rejected both of the two major parties.
Those who say preferences matter are right, just not far-right.
Of the three conservative players who sent a solid flow of preference votes to Andrew Constance, One Nation's mysterious ghost candidate, John Hawke, garnered the most - a juicy 5.02% of Gilmore's electoral flesh and enough to earn a handsome AEC rebate for each vote.
Hawke's Facebook announcement made him sound Green with a commitment to cancelling the AUKUS submarines, prioritising First Nations education, protecting women and children from domestic violence and advocating for low wage earners.
But his How-To-Vote card followed the conservative mantra to 'put Greens last' - and Labor second last.
One Nation's climate-change-denying comrade in Graham Brown of Family First likely gained the Libs another 1.81% of preferences.
Melissa Wise of Trumpet of Patriots tooted a similar horn but Sugar Daddy Clive Palmer's dirty texts and Gold Coast bling only lured 2.25% of Gilmore's independent-mining, I mean independent-minded, voters.
That left the Greens, the Community Independent and Legalise Cannabis to pick up the slack, flexing their considerable muscle to pull Labor across the line.
Full preference data is not yet available through the AEC, but 2022 data provides a telling view of flows at the last election.
In 2022, Legalise Cannabis preferences were fairly evenly split at 43% to Liberal and 57% to Labor. Independent preferences in 2022 spread approximately 65/35 to Labor while Greens voters gifted more than 85% of preferences to Labor.
But this year, for Fiona Phillips to achieve her final 55.06% from a primary vote of 38.11%, she must have gained almost all preferences not only from Greens Debbie Killian's 7.12%, but also the 7.53% from Independent Kate Dezarnaulds and 3.70% from Legalise Cannabis' Adrian Carle, who lives near Coffs Harbour and didn't even campaign in Gilmore.
According to ALP Life Member and St Georges Basin-Jervis Bay Branch President, Michelle Miran, the substantially increased progressive vote in Gilmore's traditionally conservative electorate is worth investigating.
Miran said Fiona Phillips' unexpected margin was a combination of a changing demographic, a desire for stability and the "Trump factor" making people tire of "divisive nastiness".
"In my 53 years of campaigning for Labor, this has been the nastiest, most negative and combative campaign I have experienced," Miran said.
"There was a time when volunteering at a polling booth was actually fun.
"Regardless of political belief we would chat amongst ourselves, share sweets, chairs and umbrellas, generally making the best of a long day.
"There was no such respect this time with paid workers or sects inserting themselves and intimidating voters. Predominantly young men who looked like stormtroopers, very aggressive white males.
"Let’s hope some serious lessons have been learned about practices and behaviour that is repugnant to most people."
Miran believes Fiona Phillips reaped the ultimate rewards of long-term, face-to-face engagement throughout the expansive Gilmore community, and disciplined campaign work with a team who knocked on 22,000 doors and made 14,000 phone calls.
"After the tortuous 2022 election, it was clear that Fiona Phillips had a mountain to climb," Miran said.
"But I think the last three years have very clearly demonstrated Fiona’s passion and commitment to her electorate.
"Her relentless tenacity and dedication are well known among her Canberra colleagues and local branch members.
"I doubt it would have mattered who the other candidates were."
Every vote counts, you can bank on it.
Gilmore numbers also reveal the surprising economics behind election campaigning.
If a party or candidate wins at least 4% of voters, each first preference vote earns $3.386 from the Australian Election Commission to, theoretically, cover the cost of election campaigning and allow minor groups to be active in a diverse democratic system.
READ: Ben Raue's perspective in The Tally Room
"My solution? A system of proportional representation, likely with multi-member districts."
That means Fiona Phillips' Gilmore Labor could earn $143,092 while the Gilmore Liberals are eligible to apply for $129,345.
But that's peanuts compared to what these two major parties actually spend.
While specific 2025 budgets for each electorate were not revealed, national information from 2022 showed the Labor Party campaign spent $116 million for 151 House of Representatives candidates. That's $768,212 per candidate, including, of course, costly national advertising funds that don't necessarily reach regional branches.
The Coalition, in 2022, spent even more: $131 million for 155 candidates from the Liberal and National parties.
Given that Gilmore was predicted as a tight race, there's every chance Gilmore campaigns were assigned above-average financial help from both Labor and Liberal party headquarters.
The third biggest spender in Gilmore was the Community Independent, Kate Dezarnaulds, backed by the Climate 200 fundraising and marketing might of Simon Holmes à Court.
Dezarnaulds' $250,000 campaign budget paid for a relentlessly busy travel schedule, speaking engagements, community events and advertising materials.
Despite early Independent polling that convinced Dezarnaulds she was a serious challenger, the 7.53% outcome was modest - strong for a first time independent, but only 458 votes more than the beleaguered low-budget Gilmore Greens.
Dezarnaulds has said she's already gearing up to leverage her progressive momentum and name recognition for another run in 2028.
If managing money is a major factor in good governance, then The Greens should have a seat at the treasury.
Debbie Killian's Gilmore Greens team spent just $34,000 on a campaign that started reluctantly but finished confidently. They will enjoy a $26,729 reimbursement from the AEC, despite the Liberal-funded Advance lobby spending millions to drive the environment party to oblivion.
If Killian had achieved the 10% of votes she hoped for, Gilmore Greens would have slightly profited. But the party was prepared for the reality of losing voters to Climate 200 independent, Kate Dezarnaulds.
The Greens' Dr Tonia Gray was one community advocate who urged Dezarnaulds to run.
"Yes, we were bracing ourselves for the loss of some Green primary votes."
"But I knew Kate was an articulate and highly engaged community member who represented a progressive future and amplified an environmental message.
"She added momentum to the debate on climate action, tax reform and escaping the grip of the fossil fuel industry.
"Don't underestimate the ripple effect of having three intelligent women, as we had in this election, all standing so powerfully - that needs to be applauded."
In the end, having two climate-focused candidates in Gilmore weakened the potential for either to be seen as having serious impact - especially given a commercial media apparently bent on sidelining the Greens as radical.
Debbie Killian was unperturbed by accusations of extremism or obstructionism and said people don't vote Greens to "rubber stamp Labor."
"If extreme left is a set of policies that are about looking after all of our people and our environment, instead of looking after people who have the infrastructure and the money to keep making themselves richer and richer at the expense of others, then call me extreme left," Killian said.
"This isn’t an act of rebellion.
I still feel very passionate about social justice, but there’s no social justice if you haven’t got a planet.
That’s an existential struggle and there’s no going away from it."
Active local Greens' campaigner, Peter Winkler, said Killian "did an excellent job in Gilmore" but he believes some Greens "introspection would be a wise response" because overall electoral support is not increasing despite growing environmental awareness and concern, especially among younger voters.
Winkler said Greens need to stand stronger on nature platforms such as biodiversity protection and ending native forest logging because that is the Party's point of difference.
“We allowed the major parties to turn the environment into an issue predominantly about energy policy - about our hip pocket, not our future.
"What's our retort? No new coal and gas! Again, the conversation is framed by the major parties that focus on economic impacts rather than environmental.
“We need to tackle climate change and the extinction crisis for the intrinsic value of saving planet earth - not just because it's cheaper for the consumer."
Ex-Shoalhaven Mayor, Amanda Findley, wryly observed the push for dental into medicare as a key Greens talking point in the national campaign.
“Giant toothbrushes just don't have the same appeal as giant Koalas.”
Turns out that advertising, like crime, doesn't pay.
This biggest controversy of the campaign was arguably the sheer amount of advertising smothering the region, overwhelming voters navigating around polling booths and attracting scathing criticism on social media.
But voters had their own ideas with results making insiders question the value of advertising and at what point branding becomes both boorish and boring.
Plastic-wrapped fences, corflute trip hazards and illegally placed signs on power poles are traditional types of electioneering investment rarely questioned, despite the rise of digital media as a vastly cheaper way of reaching a population spread across 6322 square kilometres from Minnamurra to Tuross Heads.
Luke Sikora, a longtime Gilmore Liberal and previous candidate, agreed that the wasteful plastic and cardboard campaign materials are a "disgrace" and wants Parliament's Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters to examine polling centre conduct, handouts, locations and pre-polling length.
"This should include examining the level, size and messaging of election signage - there is far too much and it is very confusing," Sikora said.
"Elections are extraordinarily tough, and in this instance extremely hard-fought.
" No one can deny that our local candidates and their teams worked relentlessly over a long period of time in the heat, rain and everything in between - each deserves congratulations and respect.
"But this election seemed to be less about local projects and promises and more about national policy and the personalities of the party leaders.
"I sincerely congratulate Fiona Phillips and her team...but, I will be focused on delivery - and by delivery, I mean projects that are actually complete, for example, a by-pass I can drive on!"
Gilmore's two biggest media moments were free.
First, Gilmore made the national news cycle for several days after a Sky News 'debate' between Kate Dezarnaulds and Andrew Constance during which Constance foolishly pandered to the conservative audience, supporting Peter Dutton's distaste for flying the Indigenous flag and declaring Liberals would renege on the legally-binding Paris Agreement on emissions.
Later, a union-orchestrated anti-nuclear protest hijacked Peter Dutton and Andrew Constance trying to gain valuable air time by pledging money for the St Georges Basin Dragons Rugby League Club, in Sanctuary Point.
Shoalhaven Clr. Selena Clancy was among those not impressed and she encouraged children at the event to yell at the protestors to go away.
But the hazmat-clad comedians stayed in character for the TV cameras, measuring the ground for radioactivity while searching for the "Minister for Fukushima" as Dutton boarded his campaign bus and hastily departed for friendlier towns.
Informal, or bust.
Gilmore's 2025 election result saw the highest ever informal vote of 6.87% totalling 8179 votes.
Also, out of the 129,095 eligible voters in the region, more than 10,000 votes were not recorded at all.
That's enough wasted votes to potentially change Gilmore's result.
Leanne Orr, a supporter of Community Independent Kate Dezarnaulds, said the record high number of informal votes was concerning and that one possible reason was confusion at the polling booth about how to assign preferences.
"There is a huge cohort of people who do not understand that it is not the candidate, but each individual voter, that determines where preferences go," Orr said.
I had many discussions with friends, family members and work colleagues ... I'm not sure if most people got that message.
(Kate Dezarnaulds' How-to-Vote card left boxes blank rather than suggest voters follow a particular preference order. But she did publish her personal preferences.)
"Kate’s How-To-Vote card was confusing to a lot of people - to me too at first.
"But Kate appealed to voters from all backgrounds and political views, from moderate progressives, to moderate conservatives, even to the progressives who maybe thought she might have had a better shot than sticking with the Greens."
The most surprising statements came after the election from two-time runner-up Andrew Constance, leaving many wondering why he ran for the Liberal Party, let alone for any office.
Some publicly noted that Constance appeared lacklustre at events and interviews. He has since revealed that, prior to the campaign, he suffered a heart attack and had bypass surgery.
But Constance's farewell words of advice for his party revealed he was far from a true believer in the Liberals 2025 message.
Constance said his party "probably looked a little mean" and had let Australian women down. He called himself a progressive conservative and said the Liberal Party should be "pro-environment" and listen to the community's support of the renewable energy transition".
“I do think that we have to do some soul searching in the times ahead,” Constance said.
“The movement that Menzies founded around supporting the forgotten people of Australia, supporting all walks of life, supporting the individual to be the best that they can be - that's a given.
“But you've got to have modern-day policies which reflect modern Australia."
