The Gaffe and the Gamble that made Gilmore 2025

Environmentalists around Australia are thanking Liberal candidate Andrew Constance for single-handedly attracting more than one million dollars of crowd-funding for the Climate 200 “Community Independents” running in this year’s Federal election.

by Cat Holloway /

Buoyed by the eager gaze of a Liberal-friendly Sky News “Pub Test” audience, Constance was loudly cheered when he declared in the public forum that Australia’s Paris climate targets would be “off the table under the Liberal Party”.

But his boss, Peter Dutton, didn't (couldn’t) agree since the Paris Agreement is a legally binding treaty that Australia signed in 2015.

National newspapers picked up the contradiction and Climate 200 used Constance’s “backflip” as fodder for a funding blitz that reaped a $1m plus reward in just three days.

Constance’s misguided moment of hubris was all it took to cement climate change and renewables as the hot topic in the key marginal Federal election battleground of Gilmore.

It also gifted brave new Gilmore independent Kate Dezarnaulds the confidence and exposure she needed to become one of Australia’s must-watch candidates.

With Constance now looking foolish and inconsistent and Labor MP Fiona Phillips and Greens’ Debbie Killian both absent from the Pub Test event, all eyes were on Dezarnaulds, who said she gladly debated Andrew Constance on Sky because she “felt it important not to stay in an echo chamber”.

Although the election has not formally been announced, the “I’d be mad to miss it” gamble paid off for Dezarnaulds and proved correct the wisdom about early birds and worms.

Pub Test host Paul Murray gave Dezarnaulds the floor to confirm her stance on emission targets.

“You have to be able to look a critic in the eye and… have a convincing argument about why you are doing what you do or what you believe,” Mr Murray said.

“You may not change anyone’s mind or anyone’s vote, but by turning up and arguing your case you show you are hungry for the office.”

Dezarnaulds, an awarded small businesswoman, mother of three, Berry Chamber of Commerce President and supporter of regional lobby groups, spoke tentatively at first but soon commanded the topic despite jeering and interjections from audience members.

“All I know is that there needs to be a 2030 number and a 2035 number if you are genuine about getting to net zero by 2050.” Dezarnaulds said

“For the third of this electorate who have already put solar panels on roofs, for the small businesses that are already locally installing and maintaining solar infrastructure on houses and for the community organisations that are saving bills with community solar and local batteries, I think we really need to be fair dinkum with people about the facts and that if you are thinking you’re that you're going to get to zero by 2050, you need to make a start and be serious about it.

“Another backflip on energy policy is not what this country needs - we have already in this region got to nearly 50% renewables.

“This energy transition is underway. The benefits to people's back pockets are on the way.”

Andrew Constance should have easily passed Monday's Sky News Gilmore Pub Test and claimed a win.

The debate happened in the small South Coast town of Malua Bay, Constance’s stomping ground, having been the Member for Bega for 17 years. A veteran politician with extensive media experience, he faced a managed generally right-wing older crowd with an emotional, personal connection to him. 

No wonder the Labor and Greens candidates didn’t prioritise a trip down the coast.

The pro-Liberal audience asked pointed questions to elicit specific responses and they clapped and cheered when Constance said the words “sovereignty”, “standing on our own two feet”, and putting “Australia first” as justification for ditching the Paris Agreement.

Constance also excited many punters, saying: “We have one national flag and I’m very proud that my leader has indicated that he will only stand in front of the Australian flag as the prime minister.”

Five years ago, more than 1000 people took refuge on the beach at Malua Bay, where they stayed for 24 hours, coated in ash and breathing in smoke, while they watched their community burn, literally, around them.

Andrew Constance said then he worried he would die defending his home that day. Traumatised by his experience and that of his neighbours and rural firefighters, he became outspoken about climate change causing bushfires and about policy proving ineffectual in responding to science and rebuilding communities.

"I’m going to dedicate the rest of my life to making sure this doesn’t happen again," Constance declared in 2020.

Indeed, that Black Summer epiphany led him, NSW Minister for Transport at the time, to declare that he would quit cabinet, saying it was “time to stop falling into the old trap of politics and take serious action to mitigate climate risks”

"Cobargo happened and it just really dawned on me that the profession itself in terms of politics is so wrong in this country.

“I don't want to be like that any more.”

Constance did quit - state politics, at least - in 2021, announcing he would enter the Federal sphere instead. 

But after losing by just 373 votes to Labor's Fiona Phillips in the 2022 election, Constance was again openly frustrated, saying the Liberal Party had “lost its way”.

"Politics has got to change in Australia. That's why you're seeing the election of teal independents,"  he said.

But this week in Malua Bay, Constance looked confident in campaign mode.

"In terms of our international obligations, they're one thing - but don't sell us out as you do it. 2035 Paris Agreement target - off the table by the Liberal Party!”

But the next day, Opposition climate change and energy spokesman Ted O'Brien back-pedalled for Constance, confirming the Coalition was committed to complying with the Paris Agreement's interim targets requirement and reaching net zero by 2050.

"We will be required to do so in government," O'Brien said

Climate 200 strategists shifted into overdrive appealing to 40,000 incensed supporters with the plea, “Will you chip in and help us defuse Dutton’s carbon bomb?”

ABC Illawarra broadcast on Wednesday a long interview with Kate Dezarnaulds about the debate, and The Sydney Morning Herald/ Melbourne Age reported on Friday that Climate 200 had almost quadrupled the $269,000 that convenor Simon Holmes a Court had aimed to raise - in just three days.

Meanwhile, Kate Dezarnaulds came out swinging on socials, where her following as a first-year community independent is building momentum.

“Actually, Andrew (Constance), we can’t afford not to act on climate change,” Dezarnaulds said.

“One minute he’s crying with the victims of bushfires and the next he is dropping climate targets.

“That is not leadership. That is political obedience.”